General observation: The situation of automobile production and sales in November is good
author：newstime：2011-11-20
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, China's automobile production and sales showed month-on-month growth but declined year-on-year. In November, national automobile production and sales reached 1.695 million and 1.656 million units respectively, marking increases of 124,800 units and 131,200 units compared to the previous month, translating to growth rates of 7.95% and 8.60%. However, compared to the same period last year, these figures decreased by 3.41% and 2.42% respectively.
From January to November, automobile production and sales totaled 16.7283 million and 16.8156 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2% and 2.56%. Compared to the previous month, these growth rates decreased by 0.66 and 0.59 percentage points respectively, indicating a further slowdown in growth for the year.
General observation: The situation of automobile production and sales in November is good
In November, China's automobile production and sales showed overall positive performance. Despite year-on-year declines, which were expected due to high base numbers from the previous year, the slight decreases are considered normal. Given the subdued market environment throughout the year, both production and sales in November exceeded 1.6 million units, showing faster growth compared to October and ranking behind only January and March in performance among the eleven months.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) indicated that as of the end of November, there remains a gap of 1.54 million units in total automobile production and sales compared to the previous year's figures of 18.26 million and 18.06 million units respectively. Current trends suggest that achieving a similar level to last year's and achieving moderate growth for the full year is highly likely. CAAM's Deputy Secretary-General Dong Yang predicts a year-on-year growth of around 2% for 2011.
Export performance for automobiles has been strong this year. CAAM data shows that in November, total exports reached 74,600 units, marking a month-on-month increase of 7.12% and a year-on-year increase of 52.43%. This brings cumulative exports from January to November to 758,300 units, contributing significantly to the overall growth in domestic production. CAAM anticipates that exports may surpass 800,000 units for the year, setting a new historical high.
Looking ahead, as the year-end approaches, the customary price reductions and promotions have begun in the automotive market. This annual price war typically intensifies in late November, with some models seeing price cuts exceeding ten thousand yuan. Manufacturers are keen to clear inventory and meet annual sales targets, offering incentives and discounts across various vehicle categories, including popular models and luxury vehicles.
Despite the current sluggish domestic market, which has prompted manufacturers to focus more on overseas markets, experts are optimistic about the market's prospects for next year. Dong Yang forecasts that 2012 will see an improvement over 2011, citing reduced impacts from favorable policies phasing out and a better macroeconomic environment. Additionally, industry experts at recent forums predict a return to normalcy in the automotive market, with expectations of around 15% growth for the coming year.
Looking further into the future, experts anticipate significant shifts in the automotive market, with third-tier cities in China expected to account for approximately 55% of the national market by 2020. This shift underscores a broader trend towards market decentralization and expansion beyond traditional urban centers, reflecting ongoing industrial and economic transitions.
In summary, while 2011 has been challenging for China's automotive sector, signs point towards a recovery and potential growth in 2012, supported by resilient export performance and strategic market adjustments amidst evolving economic conditions.
